Toronto at Edmonton

Edmonton leads the league at 4.6 goals per game, and the shot counts show how it has been getting them. The Oilers take 24.8 shots per game, 26th in the league, with only six teams taking fewer, and they have been outshot in five of their ten games. They score on 18.5% of those shots, the best rate in the league and well above the 11.3% for all teams. Twelve of their 46 goals have come on the power play, which converts at 35.3%, second in the league. Toronto kills penalties at a 97.4% rate, first in the league, with one power-play goal allowed in 39 shorthanded chances, and it has killed all 19 in the six games Chris Tanev has missed with an upper-body injury. Zach Hyman missed six Edmonton games, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missed nine, and in the three games since Hyman returned, the Oilers scored 6, 4 and 5 goals on 21, 32 and 21 shots. Tristan Jarry starts for Edmonton and has stopped 62 of 71 shots in three starts. Toronto scores 3.6 goals per game, eighth in the league, and allows 3.2, 18th-best. Edmonton’s finishing rate on a low shot count is the number with the most room to fall, so the UNDER is my play tonight.