Tampa Bay at Winnipeg

Tampa Bay is 5-0-2 OVER its past seven games while allowing an average of 3.86 goals. The Lightning have allowed 16 goals in just three games and they have lost all three. Andrei Vasilevskiy has yielded nine goals on 35 shots in his past two starts against Buffalo and Minnesota. Connor Hellebuyck is 7-7-5 with a 2.89 goals-against average at home in 2025-26. The Jets are 16-12-1 OVER on home ice this season and 32-27-1 OVER overall. Tampa Bay is #2 in NHL scoring, 3.62 goals per game, and Winnipeg allows 3.13. This is the fifth game in nine days for Winnipeg, and the first four went to overtime. Take the OVER.