Tampa Bay at Ottawa

The Lightning have been winning at an unsustainable pace, but they lost to Montreal on Thursday and I believe they are susceptible to another "L" here. They are just 3-7 this season when following a divisional game where they put forth extra effort. Over the last eight games, the Tampa Bay offense has come back down to earth. At home, the Senators have the firepower to keep up with them. Under Guy Boucher, Ottawa has been a favorite-slayer, posting a nearly .500 record as an underdog including 27-20 as a home dog. Take the big payout on a home upset win.