Ottawa at Buffalo

Tage Thompson scored twice in Saturday's 3-2 win at Los Angeles, two nights after a hat trick and five points in a 7-6 win at Anaheim. Buffalo has won three straight, and its road point streak sits at seven games. Thompson has 10 goals in 14 games, and the Sabres have scored 43 as a team in those 14. They have also allowed 48 and carry a team save percentage of .873, so their games stay loose. In my count, eight of their 14 finished with seven or more goals. Ottawa has the better record, 9-6-1 to Buffalo's 7-4-3. The Senators have lost three of their last four, and the three losses came on the road. They allowed 4 goals at Vegas, 6 at Los Angeles in overtime and 6 at Anaheim on Sunday. Their games on October 29 and November 1 produced 11 and 9 goals. Six of Ottawa's 16 games have reached seven goals. Both clubs are giving up goals at a rate that keeps a game open, and the Sabres are the side with the hotter finishers and the home ice. That one fact about both defenses drives the moneyline and the total on this ticket. Our bankroll only needs Buffalo to win a little more than half the time on the moneyline. Take Buffalo on the moneyline and the OVER tonight.