New York at Toronto

Toronto lost three straight last week, allowing 5, 5, and 4 goals, before beating Columbus 6-2 on Tuesday. The Leafs are 5-4-2 and have allowed 35 goals in 11 games, 3.2 a night. New York has allowed 24 in its 11, 2.2 a night, including the stretch since Igor Shesterkin went down with a season-ending knee injury on October 9. In the six games since, the Rangers have won three, scoring 6, 4, and 5 goals in those wins. They are 7-3-1 with a +9 goal differential, while Toronto's is +3. On the road, the Rangers are 1-3-1 and have scored two goals in their last three away games, and Toronto is 3-3-1 at home. New York has been shorthanded 34 times this season and has allowed two power-play goals. Toronto is giving up a goal differential and a defensive rate that sit well behind the visitors, and the price has these two around a coin flip. I'm on the Rangers.