New York at Toronto

Toronto opened last night with a 3-2 loss to Montreal, but the Leafs played better than the result suggests. William Nylander scored twice, and Toronto outshot the Canadiens 28-24 before Alexandre Carrier scored the winner with under seven minutes left. Toronto finished last season 32-36-14 and allowed the second-most goals in the league. Since then, it has hired Jim Hiller as coach and traded for Kirill Marchenko, who assisted on Nylander's opening goal. The Islanders open their season tonight without Mathew Barzal (knee), who is on injured reserve. They scored 2.79 goals a game last season, and their power play ranked 30th at 16.5%. That offense was thin even with Barzal in it. The biggest issue with this pick is the schedule, since Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back. I'll take a team that already generated 28 shots in a game that counts over an Islanders lineup playing its first one without Barzal. Toronto is the play.