Florida at Chicago

Florida scored one goal over its last two games, a 5-1 loss at Ottawa on Wednesday and a 4-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Thursday. I was on Florida at Ottawa and lost, then had the UNDER at Pittsburgh and cashed. Florida is 5-4-2 and Chicago is 3-7-0. Florida scores 2.8 goals a game, tied with Buffalo for 22nd in the league. Chicago is lower at 2.2, which is 31st, and it gets there on 21.4 shots a game, second-fewest in the league, with a power play that has converted 3 of 29 chances, the lowest rate in the league. Florida allows 24.4 shots a game, fifth-fewest, so Chicago’s small shot count meets one of the harder defenses to shoot against. Chicago gives up 4.0 goals a game, second-most in the league, and Florida produces 28.1 shots a game, 12th, so the Panthers will get their chances. Chicago played its first six games without Connor Bedard, and over the four since it has scored 2.5 goals a game and allowed 3.5. Chicago has to win 37% of the time to show a profit at the moneyline price, and with Florida’s offense in this form the Blackhawks have a better chance than that price assumes. Take the Blackhawks on the moneyline and take the UNDER this afternoon.