Florida at Buffalo

Buffalo has scored one goal in its last two games, both at home, losing 4-0 to Dallas on Thursday and 4-1 to Utah on Saturday. I had the UNDER in that Dallas game, and it cashed. Sabres goalies have stopped 87 of 105 shots this season, an 82.9% save rate, and Buffalo has allowed 19 goals in five games while going 1-for-17 on the power play. Florida played Saturday without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, lost 4-1 at home to Minnesota, and has scored nine goals all season. The Panthers have kept games tight anyway. Three of their five have gone to overtime; they have allowed 12 goals, and their goalies have stopped 90.4% of the shots they’ve faced. Both teams are scoring around two goals a game, 1.8 for Florida and 2.2 for Buffalo, so the difference sits in net, where the Panthers hold an edge of more than seven percentage points. The board has this game as a coin flip. Florida is the play on the moneyline this afternoon.