Detroit at Tampa Bay

Detroit has scored 39 goals in 14 games and allowed 41, and its team save percentage is .880. Tampa Bay is 8-3-2 and has scored 48 goals in 13 games, 3.7 a night against the Red Wings' 2.8. Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel each have 8 goals through those 13 games, so the Lightning's scoring is not resting on one line. The Red Wings sit 25th in the league in goals scored, and they have no offense strong enough to cover for a goaltending line that weak. Detroit has already used both Daniil Tarasov and John Gibson this season, and neither has pulled that save percentage out of the bottom of the league. I give Tampa Bay the edge in this game because the scoring gap and the save percentage point the same way. The Lightning are at home and carry the better record and the better scoring rate. The price is heavy because the gap is real, and Detroit's own numbers show it. At a minus price, the bankroll we're carrying needs Tampa Bay to win well over half the time, and the Lightning have lost in regulation three times in 13 games. Take Tampa Bay on the moneyline tonight, with Detroit's penalty kill having let in 14 goals on 45 opposing power plays.