Detroit at Colorado

Colorado has lost two in a row and scored two goals in each, the latest an overtime loss to Nashville on Thursday. Detroit lost Thursday too, 2-1 to Vegas, on a goal with 1:42 left in the third period. Both clubs have played 17 games, Colorado with 20 points and a 6-1-2 mark at home, Detroit with 17 points and a 3-2-2 mark on the road. The Avalanche average four goals a game to Detroit's 2.8, and that gap is why the price on Detroit is long. Colorado's last two games sit well below that average. I read Detroit's 2.8 as a low-scoring profile, and the Red Wings kept Vegas off the board for the first 40 minutes Thursday. Viktor Arvidsson leads Detroit with eight goals, and Alex DeBrincat has one in his past eight games. Detroit opens a five-game road trip tonight, and a game that stays low gives a 7-7-3 club its best route to a result. Detroit only has to win a little over a third of the time to pay at this price, against a team that has stalled at two goals twice running. Take the Red Wings on the moneyline and the UNDER tonight.