Chicago at Detroit

Chicago has allowed 44 goals in 12 games, and in seven of them the Blackhawks gave up four or more. That includes six at Utah and five each against Vegas and Carolina. Spencer Knight has started 10 of those 12 and carries a .897 save percentage. That meets a Detroit team averaging 29.8 shots a game against a Chicago defense that allows 30.3. The Red Wings have scored 31 goals in 12 games, 2.6 a night, so I read their finishing as trailing their shot volume, and a goalie below .900 is where that gap closes. Detroit's penalty kill is 30th at 65.85%, and Chicago's power play has converted four of 39 chances. Chicago scores in bursts: four or more goals in three games, none in two. Detroit has used John Gibson in eight games, Daniil Tarasov in three, and Michal Postava in one, and the Red Wings have allowed 35 goals (2.9 per game), with a crease that hasn't settled. With Chicago's defense and Detroit's penalty kill both leaking, take the OVER tonight.