Carolina at Vegas

Carter Hart has surrendered four or more goals in every game of this series. It is the first time any goalie has done that to open a Stanley Cup Final. Vegas also enters tonight without William Karlsson, who posted nine points and a plus-ten rating before suffering an arm injury in Game 5. The market sees those headlines and hands you plus money on the Golden Knights at home in a must-win. That's the wrong read. Playing at home has been Vegas's most reliable advantage for nine postseasons: 7-3 on their own ice this year, 34-20 all-time in home playoff games. Carolina has to close out a championship there against a Cup-winning organization that knows exactly what it costs to win in that building. Hart's numbers are bad, but he won two games in this series regardless. Brandon Bussi, meanwhile, is a 27-year-old making his third career playoff start with the Cup on the line. That is a different kind of pressure than what he walked into in Games 4 and 5. Carolina's 10-3 advantage in third periods through this series is the real risk, and it does not disappear overnight. But a team with a Cup ring on its finger, backs against the wall at home in front of 18,000 people with everything on the line — that's the spot to take the plus. Back the Golden Knights tonight.