Carolina at New York

Carolina lost 4-1 at Nashville on Tuesday and trailed by two goals for the first time since October 2. The Hurricanes are still 12-3-2 with the best goal differential in the league, and the Islanders are 7-5-2. Carolina scores 3.76 goals a game, third in the league, and averages 33.1 shots. The Islanders allow 26.1 shots a game, and those shots have turned into 2.71 goals against, fifth-best in the league. Carolina's own 2.29 goals allowed is second-best. The Islanders score 2.79 a game, 25th, so the game does not run on their offense. Over their last 10 games they are 5-3-2, scoring 26 goals and allowing 28. That is a club that lives in one-goal and two-goal games, and a one-goal game gives a plus-money underdog a real chance to win. Our bankroll needs the Islanders to win a little more than one game in three to show a profit on the moneyline. This is the first meeting between the clubs this season, so there is no earlier result to lean on either way. My handicap on both bets rests on the same fact. The Islanders defend well enough to keep a high-scoring team's output down, and the Hurricanes defend well enough that the Islanders' thin offense is rarely forced to chase the game. I'm backing the Islanders on the moneyline and the UNDER tonight, because a New York defense that ranks fifth in goals allowed drives both bets.