Buffalo at Washington

Washington has allowed 20 goals in its last five games, 4 per game, and went 2-3 in them, with the two wins coming by one goal against Montreal and two against New Jersey. Forward Pierre-Luc Dubois last played October 9 and has missed those five games with an illness, and Washington allowed 9 goals in the four before. Defenseman Vincent Desharnais, who averaged about 19 minutes in all nine games, is on injured reserve after an appendectomy. Buffalo is 4-4-2 and allows 3.6 goals per game, fifth-worst in the league. Washington is 5-4 and allows 3.2, 13th-worst. Buffalo’s edge is the shot count. Washington takes 26.8 shots per game and allows 29.2, the 11th-most in the league, a gap of 2.4 against it. Buffalo takes 26.9 and allows 25.8, a gap of 1.1 in its favor, and it was outshot 102-77 in the three games defenseman Rasmus Dahlin missed before returning October 21. Buffalo has scored three or more goals in seven of its ten games, and Washington has allowed three or more in six of its nine. Buffalo is a slight underdog and needs to win about 47% of the time at the price I have, and a team that outshoots its opponents against a club allowing this many goals can clear that. Take the Sabres on the moneyline tonight.