Buffalo at Montreal

Buffalo beat Florida on Monday afternoon, but the goaltending that got it there was patchwork. Colten Ellis was pulled in the second period after two goals on nine shots, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen finished the game, playing more than 33 minutes in relief. The Sabres now fly into Montreal for the second game of a back-to-back to open a three-game road trip, and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is listed as out. Montreal is without defenseman Mike Matheson. The Canadiens last played Saturday and have had Sunday and Monday off. Buffalo is 3-3-0, and Montreal is 2-2-1, but Montreal's underlying play carries more weight with me than the records. Through five games Montreal has out-attempted opponents 218-179 at five-on-five, a 54.9% share, and holds a 110-80 edge in scoring chances. Its team save percentage is .865 overall and .904 at five-on-five, so the 19 goals it has allowed don't match how the games have been played. The puckline pays plus money, and Montreal has to win by two or more a little over 37% of the time for the ticket to profit. A rested home team that controls the puck against a visitor with a shaky crease should clear that. Take Montreal on the puckline.