Anaheim at Philadelphia

Anaheim has lost five straight and allowed 20 goals in them, 4 per game. Lukas Dostal comes in at an .881 save percentage this season, below the .892 the league’s goalies have posted. Philadelphia has scored three goals in each of its last three games, all wins, after managing two or fewer in each of the nine before. The Flyers are last in the league in goals per game at 1.7, and they are still a short favorite. Anaheim is 4-0 this season when it scores three goals or more and 0-6 when it scores two or fewer, so the question is whether a Flyers defense that has allowed 3 goals per game, tied for 11th-fewest in the league, holds the Ducks under three. Philadelphia allows 31.9 shots per game, second-most in the league, and in the three starts where Joseph Woll saw 30 or more, he allowed three goals in two of them and four in the third. Anaheim only needs to win about 48% of the time at the price I have, and respected money has come in on the Ducks, so I’m on Anaheim on the moneyline and the OVER this afternoon.