Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa is in desperation mode after erasing a two-goal deficit on Tuesday and then losing 3-2 in overtime to go down 0-2 in the series. Linus Ullmark stopped 18 of 21 shots, which was an improvement from Game 1 when he allowed six goals on 24 shots. The Senators have won four of their past five Thursday games and they have gone OVER four straight at home. Ottawa still has won five of the past seven meetings and the Senators have gone OVER four of six at home against the Maple Leafs. Ottawa has won six of its past seven home games and it is 5-1 OVER its past six against Eastern Conference opponents. Toronto is in a letdown spot. Take the Senators and the OVER.

Ottawa's playoff inexperience showed as it allowed three power-play goals while losing 6-2 in Game 1. The Senators will be better prepared with a game under their belts and they actually have won five of the past six meetings with Toronto. It wasn't all Linus Ullmark's fault on Sunday and he is 25-14-3 with a 2.72 goals-against average and four shutouts for the Senators. Ottawa has won five of the past six meetings on the road against the Maple Leafs, who were outshot 33-24. Toronto is in the usual letdown situation after a big Game 1 victory and Ottawa will be focused in desperation mode. We're getting good line value as the road underdog. Grab the Senators.

The pressure is on Toronto to win the first two games at home, as well as the series. Ottawa is a tough matchup for them, a stout defensive team behind goalie Linus Ullmark. Ottawa ranks 13th in goals given up (2.83 per game) and seventh in save percentage (.907). The offense is good at drawing penalties, and Toronto is 17th in penalty killing. The Maple Leafs have some defensive injuries to be concerned about, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe not 100%. Ottawa has won five in a row against Toronto by an 18-8 count. Play Ottawa.

Ottawa's offense is 17th in goals scored and 22nd in shooting percentage. They focus on defense, ranked 10th in the NHL in goals allowed (2.82 per game) and in save percentage (.906). They've allowed 6 goals over the last three games. Toronto's defense is ninth in save percentage (.907). They come off a 3-2 loss at home to Florida on a 7-3 run UNDER the total at home. Take Ottawa/Toronto UNDER the total. 

Toronto has won three of four although the Maple Leafs look to bounce back from a 5-1 loss to Columbus on Wednesday. They have won six straight against the Atlantic Division and seven of eight overall after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous game. Toronto has won six of its past seven road games. Ottawa has lost three of five, including its past two against the Rangers and Bruins, when it was shut out in both games. The Senators are playing their fifth game in eight days, and the last three games were on the road. They have been held to two goals or fewer in five of their past six games. Anton Forsberg has been confirmed to start for the Senators, and he is 5-9-1. Joseph Woll is likely for the Leafs with a 17-8-0 record and a 2.69 goals-against average. Take the Maple Leafs.