Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Picks

It's the second game for the Lightning of a four-game trek, after a 4-2 loss at Buffalo last night. Tampa Bay's defense is third in the NHL in penalty killing and in goals allowed (2.77 per game), plus fifth in save percentage (.903), on a 4-1 run UNDER the total. Ottawa has lost four of six, scoring 19 goals. They come off a 6-3 win at home over Carolina, allowing 28 shots. Ottawa is on a 14-9-1 run UNDER the total, including 7-4 UNDER at home. Take Tampa Bay/Ottawa UNDER the total.

This is the first meeting since the first week of the season, when Ottawa won 5-4. The Senators have won four of five, although their four-game win streak was snapped 4-3 in a shootout against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Tampa Bay went OVER for the sixth time in a row while losing 4-3 in overtime against Seattle. Twelve of the past 16 meetings at Tampa Bay have gone OVER, and the Lightning are on a 9-3 OVER run against Eastern Conference opponents. The Senators have won eight of the past 11 meetings overall. Linus Ullmark is 23-10-8 with a 2.75 goals-against average for the Senators. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the loser against the Kraken, and he has allowed seven goals on 44 shots in his past two games. Ottawa can't afford to lose too many games if it wants to play in the postseason. Take the Senators and the OVER.

Ottawa had a losing road record last season and opens the new campaign on a long road trip. The young Senators made the playoffs for the first time since 2017, then lost in the first round to Toronto. It's a defensive-first team, as evidenced by its 18th-ranked goals scored and 24th-ranked shooting percentage. Tampa Bay has great depth and balance. They made only minor changes to a team that was No. 1 in scoring (3.56 goals per game) and fifth on the power play, while the defense was fourth in goals allowed and second in save percentage (.913). The wagering value is on the talented home team to win by more than one goal. Play Tampa Bay on the puckline. 

Ottawa has won 10 of 14 cashing three times as an underdog. The offense is 10th on the power play along with a defense that is sixth in goals given up (2.69 per game) and 10th in save percentage (.907). Two games ago they were a dog at Nashville and won, 5-2. They also won at New Jersey, 2-1, as a +165 underdog. Tampa Bay beat Ottawa the last time out, 4-3, as a -175 favorite. Ottawa had a 36-22 edge in faceoffs won and lost for just the fourth time in 26 contests when scoring first. Tampa Bay is on a 3-5 run losing as favorites of -140, -135, -163, and -350. Play Ottawa.