New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals

It's Game 3 and New York went 25-12-4 away from home this season. They've taken Games 1 and 2 of this series, winning 4-1 and 4-3. The offense was seventh in goals scored (3.39) during the regular season, while the defense was seventh in goals given up (2.76) and sixth in save percentage (.912). The Rangers are 45-17 against defenses that allow 2.85+ goals per game, 17-3 after playing two straight home games, and 14-1 when playing three games in 10 days. New York had a +53 goal differential, the third-best in the Eastern Conference, while Washington was at minus-37, the third-worst in the East. Washington's offense was 28th in goals scored, while the defense was 17th in goals given up and 17th in save percentage (.903). The Capitals are 8-18 at home off a road loss, plus 15-27 at home after playing a road game. Play New York. 

The Capitals spent a lot of energy during their playoff stretch drive, and New York was in full control of Game 1, limiting Washington to 21 shots. The Rangers capitalized for three goals in less than three minutes during the second period on Sunday, taking Game 1 by a score of 4-1. Charlie Lindgren stopped 27 of 31 shots but was a victim of that quick barrage and his skaters' lack of offense. Washington can take advantage of the common letdown spot after a team wins Game 1 and try to steal one before heading home. Lindgren still has had a fine season at 25-16-7 with a 2.67 goals-against average and six shutouts. Washington is now 6-0-3 UNDER in its past nine games, averaging just 4.6 total goals during this run. The Rangers have played UNDER in four straight games, and four of five meetings between these Metro rivals this season stayed UNDER the total. Both teams posted an UNDER record in all divisional matchups this year, and with New York’s style and goaltending, I see this one staying south of the total as well. Take the Capitals as a Max Play, and bet the UNDER. 

Washington had to win its final three games to assure a playoff spot and that's what it did and the Capitals come into the playoffs with a lot of momentum and a hot goaltender on their side. Charlie Lindgren has won his past three starts in clutch situations while allowing a total of three goals. He is 25-16-7 with a 2.67 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage with six shutouts. New York is 1-4 its past five first round games and it lost to New Jersey in seven games in 2023. The Rangers split four games with Washington this season and will have Igor Shesterkin in net with a 36-17-1 mark and a 2.58 goals-against average. However, Washington was #16 in goals allowed with a respectable 3.07 per game and with Lindgren the Capitals are a huge bargain in this game. Take the Capitals as a Max Play.

Washington has a winning record overall, including 9-7-2 on the road. They've won two of three cashing each time as underdogs. Washington knocked off Los Angeles 4-3 as a +165 dog and comes off a 3-2 upset of these New York Rangers as a +145 dog. The defense is 12th in the NHL in goals given up (2.98 per game). The Capitals are 12-6 when playing their third game in five days, plus they've won six in a row when playing the second of a back-to-back. New York has lost four in a row, as chalk each time, getting outscored 18-10. The Rangers' defense is just 26th in shots on goal allowed and Washington is on a 11-7 run in divisional play. Play Washington.