New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Picks

The Islanders played at Ottawa on Thursday in a 1-1 game that went to a shootout, with 21 shots for and 19 against. They have allowed 26 or fewer shots in six of their seven games, the exception being a 6-0 win over New Jersey, and they allow 2.3 goals a game, third-fewest in the league. Their games average 5.1 total goals. Toronto’s games average 6.9, and its last four produced 6, 9, 9 and 9 goals. Chris Tanev, a defenseman, has missed Toronto’s last two games, and Toronto allowed five in each. The Islanders and Toronto already met on September 30, and Toronto won 2-1 while being outshot 27-26. Toronto has scored two goals in three of its five home games. The Islanders score 2.9 goals a game, 22nd in the league, and they have done it without Mathew Barzal, who has missed all seven games and did not travel for this two-game Canadian trip. Toronto’s penalty kill has allowed one goal in 26 chances, the best rate in the league, and I’m playing the UNDER tonight.

Toronto opened last night with a 3-2 loss to Montreal, but the Leafs played better than the result suggests. William Nylander scored twice, and Toronto outshot the Canadiens 28-24 before Alexandre Carrier scored the winner with under seven minutes left. Toronto finished last season 32-36-14 and allowed the second-most goals in the league. Since then, it has hired Jim Hiller as coach and traded for Kirill Marchenko, who assisted on Nylander's opening goal. The Islanders open their season tonight without Mathew Barzal (knee), who is on injured reserve. They scored 2.79 goals a game last season, and their power play ranked 30th at 16.5%. That offense was thin even with Barzal in it. The biggest issue with this pick is the schedule, since Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back. I'll take a team that already generated 28 shots in a game that counts over an Islanders lineup playing its first one without Barzal. Toronto is the play. 

The Islanders know how to win on the road, going 20-13-3 in their away games this season. New York won for the eighth time in 11 games with a 3-2 victory against the Flames this past Saturday. That was the Islanders' league-leading 25th one-goal victory this season. The Islanders have earned trust as they fight to stay in the playoff race. The Maple Leafs haven't. The Leafs are a near-hopeless 10 points out of the playoffs as the seventh-place team in the Atlantic Division. Toronto did upset Minnesota on the road two days ago, 4-2. That was just Toronto's second win in its last 11 games. The Leafs are minus team captain and prolific offensive threat Auston Matthews. He is out for the season with an MCL tear. Toronto is 29th defensively, giving up 3.4 goals a game. The Leafs have allowed three or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. The Islanders cough up just 2.8 goals per game, fourth-best in the league. Take the Islanders. 

Auston Matthews has picked up his game in a big way after a slump. That is bad news for the Islanders. Matthews has four goals and four assists during his last three games after scoring three goals in the Maple Leafs' 6-5 victory against the Jets two days ago. That was Toronto's fourth victory in its last five games, with the only loss coming to the Red Wings in overtime on the road during this span. Matthews has five goals in his previous six games against New York. The Maple Leafs are averaging five goals per game in their last five games. The Islanders don't have this kind of momentum. They are 3-5 in their previous eight games and just got blasted, 7-2, by the Mammoth at home two days ago. Worse for the Islanders is their leading scorer, Bo Horvat, who hobbled off the ice with a lower-body injury in that game and is out. Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders' top goalie, hasn't played since Dec. 19 and won't play here. Take the Maple Leafs.