New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Betting Picks

Ottawa is 5-2, and the Islanders are 3-3. The Senators have outscored their opponents 20-19, while New York has outscored its opponents 19-15, and two of Ottawa’s five wins came by one goal, with a third decided by a shootout. I had St. Louis on the moneyline in Ottawa on Tuesday, and it cashed, 7-2, the only game this season in which the Senators have allowed more than five goals. Ottawa has three defensemen on injured reserve or out, including Artem Zub, and Jake Sanderson is day-to-day. Mathew Barzal is on injured reserve for New York, and the Islanders beat Vancouver 3-2 on Tuesday. New York has allowed 15 goals in six games, tied for sixth-fewest in the league, and Ilya Sorokin has stopped 93.4% of the shots he has faced in five starts. Both bets run through that defense: a low-event game keeps the underdog within reach and keeps the total down. Ottawa scores 2.86 goals a game, 20th in the league, and I'm on the Islanders and the UNDER tonight.

Ottawa has winning records both home and away, with a +28 goal differential. They're on a 19-9 run, with an offense that is eighth in goals scored (3.37 per game) and on the power play. Meanwhile, New York has a minus-one goal differential, on a 1-4 slide. The offense is 23rd in goals scored and 29th on the power play. Play Ottawa. 

After beating the Maple Leafs 3-1 this past Tuesday, the Islanders have now gone UNDER in 16 of their last 25 away games. It is not difficult to understand why. Only two teams give up fewer goals per game than the Islanders. New York also has the seventh-best penalty kill and a top goalie in Ilya Sorokin, who is projected to be in net today. Sorokin is firmly in the Vezina Trophy candidacy with a 2.49 GAA, .914 SV%, and a league-leading six shutouts this season. Ottawa is an underrated defensive team. The Senators rank in the top three in limiting shots, scoring chances, and expected goals at 5-on-5. They are No. 1 in giving up the fewest shots on goal. Ottawa has allowed two or fewer goals in six of its last 11 games. Take the UNDER.

Last-place New York is 1-3, despite playing only one road game. They were favored in that game, losing at Pittsburgh, 4-3. The offense is 22nd in goals scored and 29th in shooting percentage, while the defense is 24th in goals surrendered and 26th in save percentage. Ottawa plays its second straight at home after a 4-3 win over Seattle. The offense is 14th in goals scored and 13th on the power play. Ottawa is on a 28-12-3 run at home, so back home ice. Play Ottawa. 

Ottawa is on an 11-7 run, and comes into this contest off back-to-back wins at Pittsburgh (5-0) and Dallas (3-2) — the latter as a +130 underdog. The defense is 12th in goals given up, while the offense is 11th on the power play. The last place New York Islanders have a losing home record. They return from a strong three-game road trip here, but after playing eight of their last 11 on the road, could be a bit worn out. The defense is 16th in goals given up and last in penalty killing, while the offense is last on the power play and 27th in goals scored. Play Ottawa.