Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals Betting Picks

Carolina won 4-1 at Philadelphia on Sunday, its fifth straight win. The Hurricanes have outscored opponents 25-11 over that run and have scored 27 goals through six games. Washington beat them 5-2 on October 2, but that was Carolina’s season opener, and the Hurricanes haven’t lost since. The shot numbers are why I trust the run. Carolina allows 21.4 shots a game, the fewest in the league, and generates 31.9. Washington allows 28.4, 22nd in the league, and lost 5-3 at home to Seattle on Sunday. Washington is also without defensemen Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin, both on injured reserve. A puckline ticket at this price needs Carolina to win by two or more only about 38% of the time to show a profit, and four of the Hurricanes’ five wins have come by at least two goals. I make the offense the difference, since Washington gives up the volume of chances that turns a one-goal win into a two-goal one. I’m backing Carolina to cover the puckline.  

Carolina opened its title defense on Tuesday with a 1-0 overtime loss to Florida, managing 15 shots and going 0-for-6 on the power play. One game says little next to a full season. The Hurricanes won 53 games last year and scored 296 goals, the second-most in the league. Their plus-56 goal differential was third-best, and they went 29-10-2 at home. Washington went 18-19-4 on the road, and tonight is its first game of the season with a lineup it reworked this summer. Carolina lost goalie Frederik Andersen to Edmonton in free agency and will be without Seth Jarvis after shoulder surgery, so this is not the exact group that won the Cup. It still holds an 18-point edge over Washington in last season's standings and a 37-goal differential edge. Logan Thompson posted a .912 save percentage and made the league's second all-star team, which makes Washington a real opponent, but his numbers are already inside that plus-19. Carolina is the right side tonight.

Given their multiple defensive injuries, the Hurricanes have taken a strong offensive approach. Carolina is averaging five goals a game during its past three games, all of which have gone OVER the total. Charles Alexis Legault was the latest Carolina defenseman to go down, suffering a hand injury in a 5-4 win against the Maple Leafs this past Saturday. The Hurricanes have scored three or more goals in 12 of their 15 games this season and rank third in the NHL in scoring at 3.9 goals a game. The Capitals still lead the NHL in fewest goals allowed per game, but have not been sharp defensively recently, giving up three goals to the Lightning and five goals to the Penguins during their past two games. Washington, though, is averaging 3.5 goals during its last four games. Carolina has surrendered 10 goals in its last three games. Take the OVER.

Washington faces elimination in Game 5, but the Capitals have won four of five at home in the playoffs, and the only loss was in overtime in Game 1 of this series. The urgency is with the Capitals as Carolina still has a home game left and Washington will come out firing. The Hurricanes have lost eight of their past 10 road games and they are 1-6 on the road versus teams with .600 home winning percentages. Washington has won 12 of its past 15 home contests and four of five at home against Carolina. Washington is 51-39 on the puck line its past 90 games. The Capitals will make some adjustments to try and get something going offensively, including some line changes, and they showed some life in the offensive zone on Monday when they scored twice in the third period before the Hurricanes scored two more. Take the Capitals on the puck line and the OVER.