Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators

Ottawa has a 20-10-2 home record but they are a .500 team on the road, and yet they are favored in this contest. The Senators have lost two of three, including a 6-3 defeat at Montreal as a -140 road favorite. This is their seventh road game over the last 11 contests. The offense is 20th in goals scored and 24th in shooting percentage. Buffalo is home after a four-game road trip, playing well on a 5-3 run. The Sabres come off a 5-3 win at Winnipeg as a +250 underdog getting excellent contributions at both ends of the ice from new defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker. Buffalo's offense is 12th in goals scored (3.10 per game) and seventh in shooting percentage. In their last two home games, the Sabres beat Vegas (4-3) as a +170 dog, and Edmonton (3-2) as a +164 dog. Play Buffalo.

Ottawa's offense is seventh in the NHL in scoring (3.82 goals per game) and third on the power play, while the defense is eighth in goals allowed (3.00 per game). Ottawa is on a 15-10 run after a 3-0 shutout of Seattle and is working on two days of rest. Buffalo's offense is 16th in goals scored with the worst power play (8.6%) in the league, while the defense is 26th in goals allowed and 23rd in save percentage (.888). They have losing records both home and away. The Sabres have lost three in a row by an 11-6 count despite playing two of those at home. Play Ottawa.

It would take something just short of a miracle for either of these teams to make the playoffs. The Sabres are off a long trip to the West Coast and they salvaged four points out of a possible 10, allowing a total of 18 goals, or 3.6 per game. Ottawa isn't showing any quit, going 5-3 in their past eight games, and they've scored five goals in back-to-back wins over the Oilers and Devils. The Senators are 23-20 in their last 43 trips to Buffalo, and own a dazzling 18.1% ROI in the 43 games. There isn't much distance between these teams in terms of talent, and the Senators have a long successful history here. Make the play on Ottawa.