Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Betting Picks

Buffalo beat Florida on Monday afternoon, but the goaltending that got it there was patchwork. Colten Ellis was pulled in the second period after two goals on nine shots, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen finished the game, playing more than 33 minutes in relief. The Sabres now fly into Montreal for the second game of a back-to-back to open a three-game road trip, and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is listed as out. Montreal is without defenseman Mike Matheson. The Canadiens last played Saturday and have had Sunday and Monday off. Buffalo is 3-3-0, and Montreal is 2-2-1, but Montreal's underlying play carries more weight with me than the records. Through five games Montreal has out-attempted opponents 218-179 at five-on-five, a 54.9% share, and holds a 110-80 edge in scoring chances. Its team save percentage is .865 overall and .904 at five-on-five, so the 19 goals it has allowed don't match how the games have been played. The puckline pays plus money, and Montreal has to win by two or more a little over 37% of the time for the ticket to profit. A rested home team that controls the puck against a visitor with a shaky crease should clear that. Take Montreal on the puckline. 

Buffalo is hosting Montreal in Game 7 of this playoff series. That's not necessarily a good thing for the Sabres, though. The series has been dominated by the road team. The away team has won four of the six games in the series. The Canadiens reached this second round by defeating the Lightning on the road in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series. Montreal is 5-2 on the road during the playoffs. Buffalo is 2-4 at home in the playoffs. The Canadiens have outscored the Sabres by three goals in the series despite losing Game 6 at home, 8-3, two days ago. Montreal's Jakub Dobes has been the most consistent goalie between the two teams. Both of the Sabres' goalies, Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, have gotten pulled from games during the series. Lyon was yanked from Game 6 after allowing three goals on four shots, while Luukkonen couldn’t finish Game 5. Buffalo hasn't won a second-round playoff series since 2007. Take 1.5 goals with the Canadiens on the puckline.

Buffalo will likely return Alex Lyon to his starting role, as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was pulled after two periods, after five goals on 23 shots by the Canadiens in Game 5. That is good news for the Sabres as Lyon is 4-3 with a 2.25 goals-against average in this year's postseason. He has allowed more than two goals just twice in the playoffs, although Lyon was the loser in Games 2 and 3. He mopped up Game 5, allowing a goal on three shots. Buffalo has won six of seven road games, and the OVER is 3-1-1 in the series. Montreal is 50-41-3 OVER in 2025-26. The Sabres will need to get off to a fast start as they did on Wednesday when they scored three times on their first four shots, although Jakub Dobes still finished with 33 saves. Take the Sabres on the puckline and the OVER.

Combine the Canadiens +1.5 (-240) and the Liberty (-600) into a 2-team parlay at -153 odds.