Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston lost some key talent from last year's juggernaut. And even that team failed to close things out at home after leading 3-1 in the first round. Toronto has plenty of offensive punch to make this a game, second in the league in scoring (3.63 goals per game) and seventh in shooting percentage. The Maple Leafs are 11-5 on the road when trailing in a playoff series, 27-14 on the road versus winning teams, and 12-4 away from home after playing two straight divisional games. Toronto took Game 2 at Boston and the Bruins are 17-25 when attempting to close out a playoff series. Play Toronto as a Max Play.

Boston is a beast on the road. They had the best road mark during the regular season (23-9-9), then took Game 3 of this series, 4-2, at Toronto. The Bruins defense was fifth in goals surrendered (2.70) and third in save percentage (.915), while the offense was 13th in goals scored and eighth in shooting percentage. The Bruins are 56-25 versus winning teams and 49-19 when playing only their second game in five days. They're also 15-5 OVER the total on the road off a win against a division rival. Toronto's offense was second in goals scored, on a 46-36 run OVER the total. But the defense is a weak spot, ranked 21st in goals given up (3.18 per game) and 23rd in save percentage (.896). The Maple Leafs are 12-17 against divisional rivals and 16-20 revenging a loss to an opponent. Boston is 6-1 versus Toronto in seven meetings this season outscoring them 26-13. Back the visitors in a high-scoring affair. Play Boston and OVER the total as a Max Play. 

No NHL team had fewer road losses than Boston (23-9-9). The Bruins defense was fifth in goals surrendered (2.70) and third in save percentage (.915) during the regular season, while the offense was 13th in goals scored and eighth in shooting percentage. The Bruins are 55-25 versus winning teams, 86-45 against teams averaging 2.85+ goals, and 38-13 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a favorite. Toronto's defense is a weak spot in this matchup ranked 21st in goals given up (3.18 per game) and 23rd in save percentage (.896). The Maple Leafs are 19-20 at home after playing a road game, including 11-15 at home off a road win. Boston is 5-1 versus Toronto in six meetings this season outscoring them 22-11. Make it a Max Play on Boston. 

Toronto already is in a must-win situation as it can't afford to go down 2-0 to Boston and it might have to play without forward William Nylander. The Maple Leafs will have to cut down on their penalties and Ilya Samsonov is fully capable in net if he is the starter again. Samsonov is 23-8-8 this season and if the Leafs decide to go with Joseph Woll, he has a 2.94 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage in 2023-24. Boston is 8-2 UNDER its past 10 games and 8-3 UNDER against the Atlantic Division. The Bruins are 44-36-3 UNDER on the season and four of the past six meetings have gone UNDER. The Bruins lost three of their final four regular season games and they will see an all-out effort by Toronto. Take the Maple Leafs as a Max Play and the UNDER.