Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Washington is peaking at the right time as it comes into the postseason on a five-game win streak. The Commanders also are a relatively rested squad after playing their key starters for limited minutes in last week's 23-19 victory over Dallas. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 TDs with nine interceptions and has shown great ability in pressure situations. Washington is 5-1 UNDER its past six January games. The Commanders lost to the Buccaneers in Week 1, but that was Daniels' first game of his NFL career, and he has gained a wealth of confidence since. Washington's defense has been better than people give it credit, as the Commanders have allowed 23.9 points their past 10 games and are No. 10 in the NFL in yards allowed and No. 3 in pass defense. This is a high posted total, and Baker Mayfield has thrown 41 TDs, but he has also been picked off 16 times. The Buccaneers struggled to beat the hapless Saints and came from behind with a 14-0 fourth quarter to win 27-19. Tampa Bay allows 22.6 points per game. Take the Commanders on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Washington will start No.2 overall draft pick Jayden Daniels, and the Commanders hope they finally have a winner as it will be their eighth Week 1 starting quarterback in eight years. The Commanders have nowhere to go but up after finishing 4-13 and then firing coach Ron Rivera. New coach Dan Quinn is fortunate to start his stint with Washington by having Daniels to build upon, much like DeMeco Ryans did with C.J. Stroud last year with Houston. Washington is 5-2 ATS in its past seven meetings with Tampa Bay, which won the division with a 9-8 record, and there is a question about whether Baker Mayfield can put together two good seasons. Washington is 6-1 ATS in the past seven games against the NFC South teams. The Buccaneers are dealing with several injuries, especially on the defensive side. Tampa Bay has gone UNDER four of its past five games, and the Buccaneers are 7-1 UNDER their past eight home games. Also, the Bucs have gone UNDER eight straight games against NFC East opponents. Washington averaged only 19 points in 2023, and it may take a while for Daniels to settle in, although he looked good in the preseason. The Commanders have a solid defensive line, and the young secondary has a year under its belt and can only improve. Take the Commanders ATS and the UNDER.