San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Football Team Point Spread Picks

Undefeated San Francisco had a divisional showdown at the Rams last week and won 20-7. Now they have to travel on the road again, 3,000 miles to the East Coast in a tough situational spot. The 49ers are on a 4-10 spread run against the NFC, 5-11 ATS in October games, as well as 10-23 ATS on the road versus a team with a winning percentage below 25%. Washington comes off a win at Miami, rallying around interim coach Bill Callahan in his first game. And NFL underdogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points that are being outscored by 7+ points per game are 183-117 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. Back Washington.

The San Francisco 49ers have been snake bitten this season as they are of to an 0-5 start. They have lost their last four games by two points, three points, and two games by three points each in overtime. Brian Hoyer threw for seven yards per attempt last week and the Niners offense is better than the numbers indicate. Washington is strong offensively, but what has kept points off the board is scoring less than 40% TDs in the red-zone. I think that is random bad luck for a QB that has passed for well over seven yards per attempt with just one INT on the season, and I expect to see the offensive numbers on the scoreboard increase for the Redskins. Overall, both of these offenses have "sleeper" numbers in terms of points, and I see the value in this one on the OVER.

The San Francisco 49ers offense hasn't quite lived up to the billing this season. One reason is that they have not faced many cupcake defenses. The only team in the bottom seven in points allowed they faced resulted in San Francisco's highest output of the season at 42 points. They have had to face some tough defenses the last two weeks with New Orleans and Carolina. That won't be the case in this one as the Redskins stop unit has allowed an unthinkable 31.1 points per game. Over the past two seasons, San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. teams that allow 24+ points per game. The Niners defense is shoring up, having allowed just 14.3 points per game in their last three. Washington has faced seven teams this season that are .500 or better on the season, and they have been out-scored in these games by 10.6 ppg, going 1-6 in those games with all six losses by 6 points or more. The Niners are the new kings of Monday Night Football at 21-5 ATS in their last 26 such games. This team has roared back after a futile passing game in which they threw for 150 yards or less, going 9-1-1 ATS in their next game. The Niners are 23-13 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Skins are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight within the conference and they are simply overmatched here. Lay the points with San Francisco.