Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.1 points per game, which is #29 in the NFL and this team has now gone UNDER five in a row. Tennessee hasn't been much better, scoring 18.9 points per contest. Both teams rely on their defense to win games and the Steelers are allowing 21.0 points compared to 20.0 for the Titans. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (check status) has to play on a short week with a rib injury. If he's unable to go, Mitchell Trubisky steps in and he doesn't inspire a lot of fear. Tennessee will start Will Levis after he threw four touchdown passes against Atlanta in his first NFL start. However, he'll be making his first road start on Thursday night against an obviously better defense, and a defense that is now prepared for him specifically. The Titans have stayed UNDER five straight on the road and they are 10-2 UNDER following an ATS win. Tennessee is 22-8 UNDER its past 30 games overall and Pittsburgh is 12-4 UNDER at home. In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers are 59-37 UNDER vs. losing teams and 34-15 UNDER vs. teams like Tennessee that force fewer than one turnover per game. Expect an ugly game offensively here. Take the UNDER.

Unbeaten Pittsburgh is in the rare role of underdog. The Steelers had a showdown with the Browns last week and rolled, 38-7. Pittsburgh has balance on offense, ninth in rushing (136.8 yards per game), fourth in points (31.2 per game), while the defense is second in yards allowed, second against the run, and third in points surrendered (18.8 per game). The Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS as an underdog, 7-2 ATS as a road dog. They're also 33-16-2 ATS on the road versus a team with a winning home record. Tennessee is also unbeaten but hasn't been as dominant, squeaking by the Broncos (16-14), the Jaguars (33-30), the Vikings (31-30), along with a 42-36 overtime win at home against Houston last week. The defense is #25 in yards allowed, #25 against the run (137 yards per game), and #15 in points surrendered. The underdog is 10-3 ATS when these teams clash, and the Steelers are 44-22 ATS against opponents with a winning percentage of 75% or greater. Play Pittsburgh.

No use risking an injury to 37-year-old star QB Ben Roethlisberger too much and behind him the Steelers have little experience with Joshua Dobbs, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. Pittsburgh has been working on improving position flexibility this preseason and the defense has shined with it, shutting down Kansas City last week, 17-7. Tennessee's defense was much-improved under the new coaching staff in 2018, ranking eighth in yards allowed, and third in points surrendered. In Week 1 they held Philadelphia to 10 points and 227 total yards, and last week held New England to 22 points. The offense is a run-first attack, finishing #29 in the NFL in passing yards, #27 in points. In their last six preseason games the Titans have averaged 13.6 points per contest. These teams met last August in a 16-6 game in which Roethlisberger threw for 114 yards. Tennessee averaged 2.1 yards per carry, Pittsburgh 2.5 ypc. This one finishes UNDER.