Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Point Spread Picks

Washington went 5-12 last year, and Philadelphia won the division outright, so the records aren't close, but look at what both offenses are actually facing. The Commanders promoted David Blough from assistant quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator, while the Eagles turn to Sean Mannion for his first year calling plays after Kevin Patullo was let go despite running the best red zone offense in franchise history. Two first-time play-callers is close to a wash, and it puts more weight than usual on the players actually running each system. Jayden Daniels enters year three as one of the more dynamic talents at the position, the kind of quarterback who can cover for a rough install with his legs and his arm. Nick Sirianni and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are both back in Philadelphia, which is a real edge, but it sits on the side of the ball that isn't deciding this number. Six points is a lot to ask a division rival to find twice against a quarterback capable of erasing it on his own. Take Washington with the points.

Just two weeks ago, these same two teams in Washington and the Eagles won, 29-18. The combined 47 points were OVER the lined total of 43.5. Now we have a much lower total since the situation has changed. The Eagles are likely to sit many of their starters, unless perhaps the Commanders have a chance to pull the upset. Then they might come in. So backup quarterback Tanner McKee figures to get the start. There are many worse second-string quarterbacks than McKee, who started against the Giants in Week 18 last season and completed 27 of 41 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns. The bar is set low for the Eagles' offense. Washington ranks 27th in points allowed, surrendering 27.1 points a game, and ranks second-to-last in yards given up and rushing yards. Veteran QB Josh Johnson is likely to start a second straight game for Washington. The Commanders lost to the Cowboys, 30-23, with Johnson under center last week. Take the OVER.

Washington stunned the Lions thanks in large part to Detroit's five turnovers, but now the Commanders have to play at Philadelphia where the Eagles have won 10 of 11 games this season, including 26-18 over the Commanders on Nov. 14. Washington did win the rematch 36-33 in the final seconds, outscoring the Eagles 22-6 in the fourth quarter. The Eagles will keep that in mind this week and they have won four straight (3-1 ATS) since that loss. The Commanders had the third-worst rush defense in the NFL in the regular season and now they have the task of containing Saquon Barkley, who destroyed the Rams defense running for 205 yards, including two touchdowns of 62 and 78 yards. Jalen Hurts was 15 of 20 for 128 yards with no interceptions. Jayden Daniels threw for 299 yards against the Lions, whose defense was missing six starters from earlier in the season. Washington is 6-2 UNDER its past eight January games and Philadelphia is 9-1 UNDER in January. Four of the past six Eagles' Sunday home games have stayed UNDER, and the Eagles have allowed only 13 points per game their past four games. Take the Eagles ATS, and bet the UNDER.