Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Everybody wants to knock off a defending champ. Philadelphia is unbeaten, but it hasn't been easy, winning by 4, 3, and 7 points. They were down, 26-7, last week to the Rams before mounting a wild comeback. The defense ranks 15th in points allowed, 21st on third down, 24th against the run, and 18th in total yards given up. Tampa Bay is 3-0 despite playing two road games. The defense is 13th in yards allowed per game, fifth against the run, and third on third down (31.43%). QB Baker Mayfield (6 TDs, no picks) leads a balanced offense that is seventh in rushing (130.7 yards per game). The Bucs have covered four straight as an underdog (winning three times). They also ripped the Eagles on the road last year, 33-16, so back the home dog. Play Tampa Bay. 

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts has more picks (4) than touchdowns (3) on an offense that is 15th on third down (39.02%). The defense has allowed 33 points in the last two games, both sailing UNDER, and ranks 13th in the NFL on third down (33.33%). The Eagles have gone five straight games UNDER the total on the road. Tampa Bay's offense has scored 27 points in the last two games, getting shut down at home last week in a 26-7 loss to Denver. The offense is 26th in total yards with no balance (27th in rushing). The defense is 14th on third down 34.21%. The Bucs are on a 14-8 run UNDER the total, including 4-1 UNDER at home. These teams split two defensive games last season with scores of 25-11 and 32-9, and with the defenses seeming to have the upper hand, points should be at a premium here. Play Philadelphia/Tampa Bay UNDER the total. 

There's a lot of defensive talent on both sides in this Monday Night battle. Philadelphia's defense has 4 sacks after leading the league with 70 last year, plus they're No. 1 in rush defense and with 70 yards on interception returns. The Eagles are 48-20 UNDER the total after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored. Tampa Bay's strength is on defense ranked 12th in yards allowed per game, fourth against the run, and seventh in points given up (17 per game). The Bucs have a big/physical front line and fast linebackers with 8 sacks in two games. The Bucs are 216-169 UNDER the total when playing on natural grass, plus 44-26 UNDER versus the NFC East. Take Philadelphia/Tampa Bay UNDER the total. 

This is a relatively high total, and it is a really bad matchup for the Philadelphia offense. The Eagles are a run-first attack, leading the NFL in rushing behind mobile QB Jalen Hurts (784 rushing yards) and RB Miles Sanders (754 yards). However, they run into a big Tampa Bay defensive line that has ranked No. 1, No. 1, and No. 3 the last three years at stuffing the run. If they get behind, Philadelphia is No. 24 in passing offense behind young QB Jalen Hurts (16 TDs, 9 INTs). At least the defense is No. 10 in yards allowed, and the team is 44-19 UNDER the total after playing a game where 60+ points were scored. Tampa Bay's balanced defense is No. 7 in sacks and No. 12 on third down. They're a pass-happy offense, but they have lost leading WR Chris Godwin (1,103 yards) while WR Antonio Brown got himself fired, two of Tom Brady's top three targets. Also, the Bucs are 63-40 UNDER the total after having won three out of their last four contests. Back the UNDER.

Tom Brady threw for 411 yards and five touchdowns as Tampa Bay rolled over the Dolphins, 45-17, and Philadelphia overcame a 12-point deficit to beat Carolina, 21-18, on the road after losing three in a row. The Eagles intercepted three passes, and Jalen Hurts ran for two TDs, but he passed for only 198 yards with an interception. The Buccaneers are #3 in total yards and points, and they lead the league in passing yardage. Brady has thrown for 1,767 yards with 15 TDs and only two INTs. He did suffer a minor thumb injury in Sunday's game, but he said it shouldn't be a problem. Philadelphia's only other win before last week was against Atlanta in the opening week, and the Eagles are 1-7 ATS their past eight games following an ATS win dating to last season. Tampa Bay has covered five of its last six and Philly is playing its fourth game in 18 days. The Buccaneers have the best rush defense in NFL allowing only 45.8 yards on 2.9 per carry. Lay the points with the Buccaneers.