Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

Philadelphia can take some lessons from the Seahawks on how to defend against the 49ers, who lost to Seattle 13-3 with a lot on the line last week. The game went UNDER by 32.5 points, and Brock Purdy was held to 127 yards passing with an interception. San Francisco totaled just 173 yards of offense. The Eagles have gone UNDER seven of nine, mostly winning with just enough offense and losing relatively low-scoring games in the second half of the season. The total has gone UNDER 14 of Philadelphia's past 18 January games, and they have stayed UNDER seven straight Wild Card games. The UNDER is 8-1 in San Francisco's past nine playoff road games. The Eagles are #5 in scoring defense, allowing 19.1 points per game, and the 49ers are #13, yielding 21.8. Take the UNDER. 

San Francisco has won 12 games in a row with a 10-2 ATS record following its 19-12 victory over Dallas, and eight of those games went OVER. The Cowboys' inept offense prevented Sunday's game from going OVER and it didn't help that Dallas was playing its fourth consecutive road game. With Jalen Hurts under center, Philadelphia's offense will present a bigger challenge but the Niners have done well against potent passing attacks, going 10-2 ATS this season. Philly ranked 13th with a 65.4% completion percentage, and they were #3 with 7.6 yards per pass. Four of the Eagles' past seven wins have been against teams that finished under .500 and the other three were against the Giants, who barely showed last weekend. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS their past five games and they are 3-8-1 ATS their past 12 after scoring at least 30 points in their previous game. Brock Purdy is 7-0 since replacing an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, and he threw for 214 yards with no interceptions against Dallas as Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey teamed up for 86 rushing yards. The 49ers are 20-6 ATS in January, riding an 11-1 ATS streak since 2015. They are also 20-6 ATS in their past 26 games vs. the NFC, and 19-10 ATS when coming off a home win. Purdy has plenty of talent around him, including WR Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle, who made a sensational grab in a key moment of the game on Sunday. And don't forget Deebo Samuel. QB Hurts still is playing through a sprained shoulder and the Eagles racked up 268 yards on the ground against New York, but San Francisco finished #2 in rush defense this year and will force more passing by Hurts. At the end of the day, the Niners' D is the best in the NFL, allowing 16.4 PPG which is 3.1 fewer than the Eagles. They are also 20-10 ATS when getting points on the road since HC Kyle Shanahan took over. Philly has gone OVER 11 of 15 home games and eight of 10 overall following a win. Grab the points and if you have to pay a little extra juice to get this line up to +3, do it. Take the 49ers and the OVER.

Philadelphia can go ball-control with RB Miles Sanders and mobile QB Carson Wentz both averaging five or more yards per carry. The Eagles are #13 in the league in time of possession, plus 78-55 ATS away from home on natural grass. The defense is fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed, Top 10 against the run and the pass. They are a touchdown underdog to a San Francisco team that is home from a two-game road trip to the East Coast, at the Jets and Giants. They lost their only home game, 24-20 to Arizona, as a touchdown favorite. San Francisco has been without starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo with backup Nick Mullens running the offense. Garoppolo has a chance to play this weekend, recovering from a sprained ankle, while All-Pro tight end George Kittle missed the past two games with a sprained knee. The 49ers are 3-12 ATS versus teams that force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game, so back the well-coached dog in a close one. Play Philadelphia.