2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 26, 2011
Washington at Dallas
Monday 09/26 08:35 PM Eastern
4 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
This one sets up nicely for an UNDER play. This total is set high for a week three game, which have averaged 40.8 since 1989. In fact, we have seen a totals at 45+ in week three just 130 times the past 22 years (only about 20% of the time). The UNDER has been a good bet in this situation, hitting 82 times (63%). There are now just four undefeated teams left in the NFL. The Packers, of course, are no surprise. But the other three are shockers: The Lions, the Bills and... The Redskins. A win for the Skins here bodes well for their playoff hopes as 76% of NFL teams that start 3-0 have made the playoffs. All of a sudden Rex Grossman doesn't seem that crazy for his preseason proclamation that his team would win the NFC East (bodes well for my preseason prediction that the Skins would win more than 6 games). The Redskins lost 10 games a year ago largely due to their weak defense which finished the season ranked #31 in total yards allowed per game. They have certainly addressed that issue this season as they now rank #11. Dallas has a new coach and a new emphasis that has transitioned a defense that dramatically under-achieved a year ago, finishing #23 in the league. That defense, which has a lot of playmakers, has responded and now ranks #5 through the first two games. This is a division game and a Monday Night battle, and I expect the defensive intensity will rise above even that level, and this turns into a battle of field position. The Cowboys defense knows this is a big game for them with many of their offensive stars out (Austin) or ailing (Romo, Bryant, Jones). I expect the Cowboys to run the ball a bit more than usual and throw short to Witten with Tony Romo suffering from a fractured rib and punctured lung and lacking healthy threats in Austin and Bryant. The Dallas defense is aware of the offensive causalties, and will likely respond with a spirited effort. So far, Dallas has put the "D" back in Dallas, with 10 sacks in two games. DeMarcus Ware is a beast, leveling the QB four times already. Washington has now played five straight games to the UNDER after gaining 350+ in their last game and the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five between these clubs. I look for a physical NFC East battle with the UNDER prevailing.