2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 19, 2008

19

Tennessee at Kansas City

Sunday 10/19 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Kansas City +9.5 (-115) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Tennessee is 5-0 and the Chiefs are off a 34 to nothing beatdown by Carolina. Guess who John Q. Square likes here? This game opened at 7 for the Titans, quickly moving off that key number to another one - 9. The public is in love with the Titans right now as they remain the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. The question is which Chiefs team do we get in this game? The one that was completely embarassed on the road vs. Carolina losing by five touchdowns? Or, the one that rocked Denver at home 33-19? I would side with neither extreme, but much closer to the version that beat Denver at home. There is no question who the better team is here, but that isn't always what governs outcomes in NFL games (see last week's games involving St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland). It's as much about motivation, and the Chiefs have excelled in this spot for as long as anyone can remember. The Chiefs hold one of the best homefield advantages in football and when posted as an underdog, they simply show up. Since 1985, the Chiefs are a remarkable 31-11 ATS as a home dog. The bigger the talent difference, the better the result. Since 1985 the oddsmakers have only dared to make them a home dog of a TD or more four times. The Chiefs are 3-1 SU in those games and 4-0 ATS! They have outscored the opponent by 28 points in those four games, and that includes this year's aforementioned game vs. Denver. I was on the Chiefs in that one and I'm back on them again here.

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