2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 05, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Tennessee at Baltimore
Sunday 10/05 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Baltimore +1 (-109) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: PUSH
Tennessee has become a public darling aftter their impressive 4-0 start. In contrast, even with Baltimore's performance on the road vs the Steelers, they aren't getting a whole lot of respect here as the public is backing the road favorite Titans at a rate just over 70%. It is hard to believe Baltimore is the underdog here. I think most haven't been sold on this team yet, despite their good play this season. I was turned around on Monday night after seeing them continue their defensive domination vs. a good team. And, Joe Flacco didn't show signs of fluster on the road under the big lights. As we know, the Ravens were 0-8 SU and ATS on the road last year. They broke that string getting the cover on the road at Pittsburgh on Monday night. This week they face the Titans, a team much like the Steelers, except Kerry Collins is not Big Ben, and this one is at home. As bad as the Ravens were last year overall, they were solid at home, beating the Steelers, losing to New England by just 3, and dropping one to the Browns by 3 in OT. This should be a low scoring, field-position type game. The Ravens have Sam Koch who has a big leg, averaging 48 yards per punt so far, and their special teams, which could be the deciding factor, are a tad better. I am not yet sold on the Titans as their 4-0 start has as much to do with a 2-to-1 turnover advantage than great play. I think these teams are even, and the Ravens are under the radar, getting points at home. While both defenses are the talk of the town, the Ravens demonstrate here that it is Baltimore that has the better one.