This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 11:29AM ET.
img NFL

Tennessee at Atlanta

November 23, 2003
img4:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Atlanta +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
LOSS

All signs point to a Titans blowout but those are just the opportunities I love! Atlanta’s playing with some spunk. They beat the Giants two weeks ago as a 10.5 point underdog and nearly beat the Saints last week as an 8.5 point dog. They’ve found a running game as Warrick Dunn has put up 162 and 172 yards on the ground the past couple of weeks. It won’t help Tennessee that their all-pro defensive end Jevon Kearse is questionable for this game with a left ankle sprain. Tennessee is certainly having a great year and it seems everyone is talking Super Bowl. But their stats tell a slightly different story. Statistically, they are no better than average (ranked 12th in offense and 15th in defense). Steve McNair always keeps them in games but this team is due for an upset and this just might be the game. Big home dogs with poor winning records cover the spread about two thirds of the time in the NFL. As we saw last week in Cincinnati, teams simply can’t maintain a super-high level of play every single week. At some point, they slow down to take a breadth and get caught. The Titans have won five straight and have held their last two opponents under 10 points. They are big-time due for a letdown.

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