Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Not many projected the New Orleans Saints to be 1-3 through four games, but that is their reality. The Saints' offense has effectively moved the ball, but the end-zone has been a lot more elusive than in recent years. They did pound the Falcons for 34 points in their opener, but Atlanta has been brutal defensively. Last night Green Bay hung a 42 on Minnesota, while the Saints could manage just 20 at home against the Vikes. And, the Saints followed that with just 17 points against a Dallas defense that is not considered elite. The Buccaneers' offense is challenged, but the defense is better than advertised simply because of the 56 hung on them by Atlanta. Outside of that game, this defense has allowed just 21 points per game. And the Bucs are really going to struggle to score in this game. New Orleans' reputation has the total jacked up, and they have not shown to be that same prolific offense this year. In his head coaching career, Lovie Smith is 45-26 to the UNDER as an underdog. The last 11 meetings between these clubs have seen nine fail to get to the total, and this appears to be number 10. Play on the UNDER.