2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 24, 2011
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Saturday 12/24 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Tampa Bay PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
Carolina is the biggest public favorite this week with over 80% of the bets favoring the Panthers. The public loves Cam Newton because he is exciting to watch and root for. For the same reasons, they hate the Buccaneers. While Cam is very good, he doesn't play defense and you have to ask yourself if it's smart to lay a touchdown in a division game with one of the worst defenses in the league - one that allows over 26 points per game. Tampa Bay might be wondering when they will ever win another game. The Bucs have now dropped eight straight games. There is one thing that long losing streaks do and that is they force the oddsmakers to bring them to an end at least according to the line. This line at +9 is a byproduct of a long losing streak and no one wanting any part of them, as it is as ugly as it gets. The proof is found in the history of the league. From Week 9 out, teams that have lost at least seven straight and playing on the road are 44-21-2 ATS. The reason is no one wants them is that the lines get inflated and unfair, and they cover better than two of every three games for the last 30 years. Hold your nose and play on Tampa Bay.