2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 16, 2011
St. Louis at Green Bay
Sunday 10/16 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on St. Louis PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: loss
This is certainly a game of the haves vs. the have-nots. While it looked like the St. Louis Rams turned the corner last year and would be competitive this season, that certainly hasn't happened with the Rams off to an 0-4 start. Their offense has fallen back once again and is averaging just 9 points per game. That makes this one look easy for the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay packers who are scoring points with high regularity at 34.6 ppg. While the Packers offense remains lethal behind the accurate tosses of Aaron Rodgers and all his weapons, the defense has been highly suspect. After ranking No. 2 a year ago, the Packers stop-unit comes into this one at just No. 21 in the league, allowing over 21 points per contest. This is a similar situation that good teams have found themselves in many times in the past. Facing a team they should pound to death, they come in a bit overconfident, while the winless team coming off a bye is ready to show up. Teams that start the season 0-4 or worse and are coming off a bye are 21-3-1 ATS since 1990, as well as a perfect 10-0 ATS as a road dog. Green Bay should win this game by 20+, but more likely they will surprisingly struggle. St. Louis will find a way to score against this Packers defense. The last six played in this situation have done exactly that, averaging 52 points per game. The last three teams in this spot were on average a +12.3 point underdog yet they have won the game outright! The Packers are now 22-12 to the OVER in their last 29 at Lambeau as a favorite under Mike McCarthy. They are also 54-26-2 to the OVER in their last 82 vs. losing teams and 85-54 OVER following a game that went UNDER. Play on St. Louis and the OVER.