2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 23, 2011
St. Louis at Dallas
Sunday 10/23 04:15 PM Eastern
3 units on St. Louis PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
How the hell can I back St. Louis, a team getting outscored 9.8 to 27.4 on average on the season? Actually, given the history of pointspreads in the NFL, the question should be how can you not back them? Any pick can be a win or a loss and picks on ugly dogs can lose ugly. But, history says the very beastly dog here is the way to go. I don't think there is much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one, but thanks to an inflated number, we have value taking the points on the Rams. When you get to this point of the season and a team hasn't notched a win, you automatically get extra line value on them. Add in a big loss last week in which St. Louis looked horrible and you get even more value. Dallas is off a huge emotional game vs. New England, a game they had for over 59 minutes, but in the end New England and Tom Brady once again worked their magic on their way to another win. I seriously doubt Dallas will be excited and focused after that one facing this Rams team. Winless teams from Week 6 come through blindly at a 62% clip ATS as their opponents often mail-in these games. Dallas has had more problems as a favorite than any team in the league of late as well, as they are a dismal 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 when giving points, including 1-7 ATS at home in that situation. I'm going with the ugly dog here and backing St. Louis.