This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 11:54AM ET.
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St. Louis at Cleveland

December 8, 2003
img9:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Cleveland +4 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

After last week’s dominating 48-17 performance, the prognosticators have St. Louis winning the Super Bowl again. Hang on there tiger. Doesn’t anyone remember the week 11 game against lowly Chicago in which they barely won by two points? What about the week 12 game against Arizona in which they won by just three? Yes, Marshall Faulk is playing well (finally) but don’t forget that Marc Bulger has been playing bad enough to fuel talk of his being replaced by Kurt Warner. He’s thrown 11 interceptions in the past five games. This week St. Louis needs to travel to the Dawg Pound on Monday night against an excellent defense (fifth in the league). Not good for the Rams as they play considerably worse on the road. All three of their losses (and all four ATS losses) have come away from home this year. At home they’ve won by an average margin of 36-17 but on the road their average score has been 22-24. After putting up 44 points in week 11, the Browns have struggled on offense the past two weeks, scoring a combined 13 points. After those two poor showings, I expect them to show up on Monday night. My Matchup Power Ratings actually indicate Cleveland should be favored in this game. Spurred on by the national spotlight at home, and a very good defense, The Browns should be able to contain St. Louis’ offense enough to keep this one close.


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