2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 17, 2016


Seattle at Carolina

Sunday 01/17 01:05 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Seattle +125 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 3.38)  RESULT: loss

1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 44 -103 (risk 1.5 to return 2.96)  RESULT: loss

1Seattle is lucky to be here. Does that mean they are undeserving? There is something about what happened last week in the lucky Seattle Seahawks win that brought me back to last season. Minnesota missed a 27-yard field goal by a kicker that was 15-15 in his career on FGs with the temperature of 20 degrees or below. Rewind to last year and Seattle trailed Green Bay 16-0 at the half then got a fake punt pass by their punter for a TD. They scored agin to make it 19-14 with just two minutes to play. Seattle then recovered an onside kick and took the lead before ultimately winning in overtime. They should have never been in the NFC Championship game, and they should not be here now. But, we all need a little luck at times. So here they are again against a Carolina team that almost ran the table, finishing 15-1. Many wonder why the line is so low, suggesting the game is a pick'em when considering the three points awarded for home field advantage. The truth is that Seattle is the better team. Seattle is the best team in the NFL right now. The Seahawks have won the line of scrimmage by 85 yards per game, while Carolina is just 44. The other fact is that elite teams in the wrong spot are brutal bets in the playoffs. A team that has a scoring margin on the season of greater than 11.5 ppg (Carolina), and the game is beyond week 18 (the Wild Card round), to a total of 55 or less with 13 wins or more on the season are 0-22 ATS. More importantly, they are just 8-14 straight-up despite being favored on average by more than a touchdown (-7.1 points). Secondly, any team that averages more than 30 ppg that is facing an opponent with more than five days rest off a road win are 0-10 ATS. Again, what is more important is that they are just 4-6 SU to an average line of -9.1. The Seahawks led the league for the fourth straight year in fewest points allowed per game. The Panthers have a long history of playing similar defense at home where they are 63-44-2 to the UNDER in their last 109 games here as a favorite, allowing just 17.3 ppg. Seattle has allowed just 64 points in their last six games at 10.7 ppg. Seattle is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER the past three seasons when revenging a loss. Under Pete Carroll, this team is 17-8 straight-up revenging a loss and 27-19 vs. winning teams. This game is going to be an ugly defensive game, and Seattle should find a way to come away with the hard fought road win. Take Seattle on the moneyline and also play the UNDER.



Last 20.0 years

Wins Losses Units
2330 2048 +201.22

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