2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 14, 2017
This pick was released to clients on January 20, 2022 at 1:23PM ET.
Seattle at Atlanta
Saturday 01/14 04:35 PM Eastern
1 unit on Seattle +185 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 2.85) RESULT: LOSS
This is going to be an interesting game of contrasts. The Atlanta Falcons host with their high-octane offense against the Seattle Seahawks' great stop unit, which is one of the best in the NFL. The general public loves a high-scoring team, and there will be plenty on Atlanta for that reason alone. I believe this is the biggest contributor to an inccorect line being set on this game. I think it should be under a field goal. Is it a historically a wise choice to go with offense over defense? Looking back it has been just the opposite. NFL playoff teams that averages 32.1 points per game or more on the season, are a woeful 5-15 ATS. Perhaps worse than that, they are just 11-9 SU to an average line of just about -7, so they have far underperformed their offensive expectations, as these 20 teams have averaged just 24.4 ppg. It gets even worse when you look at them in these games vs. a team that allows fewer than 19 ppg as they are 1-9 ATS and just 5-5 straight-up. When you are just 5-3 at home, allowing nearly 28 points per game, you should not be laying this many points. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 9-8 straight-up as an underdog in this range (+140 to +325). And, under Carroll, this team is 33-12 vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Seattle has a bona fide chance to win this one, so make the play on Seattle on the moneyline.
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