2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 25, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
San Francisco at Houston
Sunday 10/25 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on San Francisco +3 (+112) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: PUSH
I don't think life on the practice field or locker room has been very pleasant for the 49ers over the last two weeks. San Francisco was spanked badly at home 45-10 by the Falcons before their bye. That kind of humiliating loss at home is what motivates players and coaches to come out with a vengeance in their next game. I'm sure Coach Mike Singletary has reminded them directly and indirectly of how bad they were for two straight weeks. He has been the single most influential change in this 49ers team, and so far they have responded to him. Usually it's bad teams getting handed 35-point home losses but we have an exception here because this Niner's team is good. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games under Singletary, and he has spread his intensity and fire into the players’ heads and translated it to wins on the field. The Niners have covered all four games after their last four losses under Samurai Mike, and three of those covered the spread by a total of 54 points! I expect a big effort here after that terrible loss to the Falcons. The Texans are getting a banner season out of Matt Schaub, but over the years he has struggled against 3-4 defenses. Already this season he was completely shut down by the Jets and the Texans were scoreless in the first half vs. Arizona. Schaub had a better second half vs. Arizona, but ultimately threw a pick-six that sealed the loss. That will put a lot of pressure on a Houston defense with just seven sacks all season. Frank Gore is back and he should get enough yards to help Shaun Hill stay out of third and long situations, and do what he has done best - manage the game. The Texans are the classic breakeven team. They are good enough to surprise at times, and bad enough to disappoint. They have not won two games in a row all season, nor have they lost two, and that streak has reached eight games now. They are now a favorite against an angry, motivated team that plays a defense their Houston's QB has a proven history of struggling against. The game may very well be in Shaub's hands thanks to the fact that San Francisco boasts the one of the league's top rushing defenses. They've held opponents to just 89 yards per game on the ground. And that has come against some good running backs including Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Stephen Jackson. I like the points and the Niners here.
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