2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 24, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
San Francisco at Baltimore
Thursday 11/24 08:20 PM Eastern
2 units on Baltimore PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The San Francisco 49ers have not failed to cover a game all season at 9-0-1 and their overall record of 9-1 is well above anyone's expectations for this improved team. That is the good news. The caveat here is that they have been rolling a lot of 7s with a whopping +21 in turnover margin for the season and have been +1 at the very least in all 10 games. Looking inside the numbers, this is now an over-valued team at 9-1. The Niners have actually been outgained by their opponents on the season, and their offense has generated just four more first downs than their defense has allowed. There have been five, or 50% of their opponents that have outgained them this season - hardly the resume of a legit 9-1 team. The Ravens are one of the best home teams in football and a 9-1 team is going to get their full attention here. The Ravens are 45-24-2 ATS at home vs. a non-division opponent, and those numbers fly off the charts when posted as a favorite where they are 39-13 ATS. The Niners have played a soft schedule and received every single break, having played teams that are below .500 at a combined 47-53 on the season. Thursday home favorites in non-div games are 26-8-4 ATS and the Ravens are waiting to show the 49ers what a good team looks like. Play on Baltimore here.
|San Francisco 49ers49ers||3||3||6|