This pick was released to clients on August 13, 2012 at 2:21PM ET.
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Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

December 23, 2002
img9:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Tampa Bay -3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
LOSS

If Tampa Bay can shut down Michael Vick, can they shut down Tommy Maddox? Even without the fear instilled from Maddox’s scary injury, the answer is an easy yes. In two games since returning from the injury, Maddox has thrown three Picks to only one TD. That doesn’t bode well against the Tampa Wrecking Crew.

Tampa Bay’s defense is a thing of wonder. Simeon Rice and Warren Sapp have combined for 20 sacks this season. This defense also boasts a league-high 27 interceptions and is tops in the league in scoring defense. Any wonder why they are 11-3?

The Bucs endured last-week’s letdown situation against the Lions and pulled out the win. This week at home on national television, they will be sky high.

The Bucs have won six straight at home SU and against the spread. As a favorite, this is the lowest number of points they have laid this season. Given that this is a Monday Night home game and the Bucs are clearly a superior team, I can’t understand it.

If we assume the Monday Night home team has an inherent 3 to 3.5 point home field advantage, the lines-makers are calling this a pick-em. The stats paint a different picture …

Tampa Bay’s offense is better than Pittsburgh’s defense in both scoring and passing. When Pittsburgh has the ball, it gets even better. TBs defense is better than the Steelers’ offense in every major category: Scoring, Rushing Yards, Yards/Rush, Completion Percentage, Passing Yards, and Yards/Pass.

My power ratings say Tampa should be favored by over a touchdown in this game. But it doesn’t stop there, Tampa Bay qualifies for three separate situational angles that involve big favorites off a win that are a combined 58-5 ATS the spread over the last five years (6-2 this year).

Go Bucs.

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