Pittsburgh at New England

Pittsburgh won on the road in Atlanta a week ago despite converting barely a third of its third downs, finding other ways to put together a 20-13 win. New England's night was messier: they turned the ball over three times against Seattle, yet the Patriots still controlled the ball for over 34 minutes and pushed the game to the final possession before losing by three. Neither offense was explosive, but both could sustain drives, and New England's turnovers were more about mistakes than an inability to move the football. Clean up even one of those giveaways and New England's own offense gets extra possessions to work with, while Pittsburgh's defense, coming off a game where it bent without breaking, now faces a Patriots operation that's shown it can eat clock and stay on schedule. Two teams built around long, sustained drives tend to produce more plays and more scoring chances than a raw final score suggests, and that's exactly what a low-40s number is underselling here. Play the OVER today; both offenses will have enough possessions to make it happen.