2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 10, 2015
This pick was released to clients on September 08, 2015 at 11:48PM ET.
Pittsburgh at New England
Thursday 09/10 08:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on New England -7 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: PUSH
This is as bad a situational spot as you can find for week one for Pittsburgh. They had a great offense last season -- but lost their top offensive lineman in preseason and have star RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Martavis Bryant out with suspensions. Don't underestimate the importance of Bryant -- the offense started to click last season when he began stretching the field, opening up space for Antonio Brown. And things get worse on defense as long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned in the offseason and was replaced by Keith Butler, who must shore up a unit that ranked among the bottom fourth of the league in sacks, interceptions and passing yards surrendered. The Steelers are 1-8 ATS in September, plus 0-4 ATS in week one. They run into a New England fanbase that will be positively electric, raising a Super Bowl banner during a pregame ceremony, then going wild as QB Tom Brady takes the field - something most thought wouldn't happen in week one. After spending much of the offseason (including August) in court rooms, Brady will be sky-high to get on the field for real. And he has a loaded arsenal of weapons to throw to in star tight end Rob Gronkowski and WRs Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. And they added huge tight end Scott Chandler, meaning their two tight ends are a monster mismatch for opposing linebackers. When we last saw these guys they put up 35, 45 and 28 points in the playoffs, the latter against the mighty Seattle defense in the Super Bowl. Now they get to feast on a young Pittsburgh secondary that lost both Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. This New England defense looks better than many think, too. Yes, they lost two starting cornerbacks, but the addition of DE Jabaal Sheard and Dominique Easley (not healthy in 2014), plus rookie NT Malcom Brown have been impressive in preseason with their pass-rushing ability. New England got great pressure on opposing QBs in August despite rarely blitzing -- something that wasn't present with last year's championship defense very often. Brady is 11-2 in season openers and 7-2 in his career versus Pittsburgh, including 3-0 at home. The Patriots are also 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and 14-6 ATS on fieldturf. With the Steelers 3-10 ATS against the Patriots, including 1-4 ATS at New England, lay the touchdown on the fired up home team in an angry statement game.
|New England PatriotsPatriots||0||14||7||7||28|