2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 19, 2008

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

19

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Sunday 10/19 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Cincinnati +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Both of these teams have been beaten up through the first six weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may be the healthier of the two, and they are certainly in better shape record-wise at 4-1 vs. Cincy's 0-6. The Steelers likely just want to get out of here with a win, knowing they have a big challenge at home next week against the Superbowl Champ Giants. Following that big game are games against Washington, Indianapolis and San Diego. So the 0-6 Bengals, without Carson Palmer, can't excite the Steelers here and I don't see them expending too much energy as a result. That makes this a dangerous game, because this is a division matchup and the Bengals have played to the level of the competition this season. They have played a very difficult schedule, but they aren't getting blown out by the big teams they face. They more than held their own against three powerhouses on the road, dropping a 9-point decision in Dallas (covering a 17 point spread), taking the Giants to OT in New York, and losing by just a TD at Baltimore. All of those games resulted in smaller final margins than this spread. The Bengals are home and hungry for their first win and would like nothing more than to see it come vs. the Steelers. It may surprise some that 0-6 teams have shown good value, as they are 5-3 ATS since 2000. I look for the Bengals to catch the Steelers napping here, as they did vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago. The Steelers are rested off a bye, but that hasn't helped them in the past as they are just 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen post-bye games. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following a win. Bengals plus the points here.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Steelers 10 0 7 21 38
Bengals 0 7 3 0 10

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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