This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 2:00PM ET.
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Pittsburgh at Baltimore

December 28, 2003
img8:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Baltimore -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
LOSS

Assuming Cincinnati beats Cleveland (they should), Baltimore will need a win or tie in this game to win the NFC North. They won’t let down if/when they get a big lead. If that’s not enough motivation, they also have these things going for them: Jamal Lewis will be running extra hard to try to get the NFL record for most rushing yards in a season (he needs 154 to surpass Eric Dickerson). His O-line will be busting butt for him, too. Baltimore’s playing at home in the last game of the season, a nationally televised affair, against a division rival. The Ravens will want the momentum going into the playoffs. Finally, the Steelers have won six straight in Baltimore. Think the Ravens want to put an end to that embarrassing streak? If these motivational factors weren’t enough, the Ravens are a much better team than the Steelers. My Matchup Power Ratings indicate they could easily be laying 10 points in this one. Even if Cincinnati loses, it won’t change Baltimore’s game plan much. Either way, they will run Jamal Lewis left, right, center - repeat. And, the other motivational factors remain. The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS at home this year and 13-4 ATS at home in December while the Steelers are just 1-6 ATS this year off an ATS win. Baltimore and its running game will be way too much for the Steelers in this one.

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