2017 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 04, 2018

This pick was released to clients on January 29, 2018 at 6:24PM ET.

04

Philadelphia vs. New England

Sunday 02/04 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 5.88)  RESULT: WIN

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers? error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated the true odds. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a a tie for points in the first-half (21.5) vs. the second half + OT (21.5). But as usual, we need to dig deeper. In 51 prior Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.65 and 24.47. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding the 2012 Super Bowl in which the first-half points exactly matched the second-half points, the second-half has been the highest scoring half in 31 of 50 Super Bowls (62%). Fair odds on a 62% bet are about -130. But, it gets even better. Let?s look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced in the past few decades as this game has gotten bigger and bigger. Over the last 2724 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.48 and second half = 27.71. That's a 23.3% difference in points! In the last 19 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 14 times out of 18 years (78%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 six years ago in the first quarter. Based on that recent history, fair odds on this bet would be -350. So, -145 odds is a gift we will take.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Eagles 9 13 7 12 41
Patriots 3 9 14 7 33

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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