Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 45 or more yards? We have two elite defenses here so your intuition probably says that it?s not that likely. But, the stats speak otherwise. Over the first 51 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 32 times (63% of the time). And, the games that didn?t have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 31 Super Bowls, only 11 games have failed to produce a touchdown of 45+ yards. That?s just 35% of the time. So, we can expect roughly a two-thirds chance of winning this bet, while getting about even odds. Take the OVER on this prop bet.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2018 at 4:24PM ET.
Philadelphia vs. New England
February 4, 2018
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 4.43)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Philadelphia +4.5 (-105) (risk 2 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
WIN
0.5 unit on Philadelphia +175 (moneyline) (risk 0.5 to return 1.38)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48.5 +100 (risk 1 to return 2)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 (risk 2 to return 6.1)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5
(risk 2 to return 5.67)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 2 to return 7.5)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 5.88)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 5.18)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 2 to return 5.14)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 5.82)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (risk 2 to return 5.74)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING
Get free NFL Picks
I pore over the data, injuries, news, and odds every morning.
You get the best bets delivered to your inbox.